Hormuz Risk Is Becoming a Year-End Problem

The deterioration in commercial confidence around the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly visible in the timelines now being used by major shipowners.

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (MOL), one of Japan’s largest shipping groups, now says it is difficult to see operations through Hormuz resuming before the end of 2026. That represents a significant shift from earlier expectations that navigation conditions could progressively normalise during the year, and suggests that major operators are increasingly preparing for a prolonged period of disruption rather than a short-lived security event.

The change cannot be separated from the current operating environment. Recent reporting shows that commodity vessel traffic through Hormuz remains well below normal levels, while renewed attacks, uncertainty over mines and further US-Iran escalation continue to complicate voyage planning. Reuters reported that only four commodity vessels transited the Strait on 2 September, compared with a recent ten-day average of around 13.

At the same time, the commercial environment is becoming more restrictive. Iran has expanded its blacklist of vessels prohibited from transiting Hormuz, adding another layer of uncertainty for owners, charterers and cargo interests already assessing whether continued exposure to the Strait is commercially acceptable.

MOL’s position is therefore important because the company is not simply asking whether an individual ship can make a successful transit. It is looking for evidence that safe passage can be repeated across multiple voyages and sustained over time. That is a much higher threshold, and one that better reflects how major operators and insurers judge whether an operating environment has genuinely stabilised.

The Strait of Hormuz can therefore remain physically open while still being commercially constrained. Individual vessels may continue moving, but that does not necessarily mean normal shipping patterns, insurance conditions or corporate risk tolerances have returned.

The key indicator of recovery is increasingly not whether ships can transit Hormuz, but whether major commercial operators begin returning consistently and repeated safe passage becomes normal rather than exceptional.

For now, MOL’s year-end assessment suggests that commercial confidence may take considerably longer to recover than the physical ability to move ships through the Strait.