The workflow is designed to preserve the distinction between raw reporting and analytical judgement.
Public-source material is collected and tested before it is translated into an assessment or warning indicator.
1. Requirements
Define the question, decision need and information gaps.
2. Collection
Gather official, commercial, media, OSINT and movement-related reporting.
3. Validation
Cross-check claims, timing, location, source quality and competing explanations.
4. Assessment
Identify patterns, implications, confidence, scenarios and second-order effects.
5. Monitoring
Set indicators and triggers that would confirm, weaken or change the judgement.