As El Niño risk returns, Panama is trying to secure the canal’s future. But the fight over the Rio Indio reservoir shows that global trade resilience may come at a local human cost.
The US-Iran memorandum may ease immediate pressure, but renewed uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and Israel-Hezbollah exchanges shows that resilience, not normalisation, is now the central issue.
AIS was built to make shipping safer. In today’s conflict zones, it is becoming something else: a signal of survival, identity and permission.
In the Red Sea, ships began using AIS messages to distance themselves from Israel or advertise armed guards. In the Strait of Hormuz, the practice has gone further. Vessels have started broadcasting phrases such as “CHINA OWNER”, “INDIA CARGO” or “OWNER FRANCE” — not as destinations, but as political credentials for passage.
At the same time, deceptive operators are exploiting AIS to spoof locations, hide sanctioned cargoes, create false origin stories and even assume the identities of scrapped vessels.
This report examines how AIS has moved from a safety tool to a front line in maritime conflict. The issue is no longer simply whether a ship is visible or dark. The deeper question is whether the identity it broadcasts can be trusted — and whether neutral passage still exists when commercial ships feel forced to explain who they belong to before they can move.
Dean Mikkelsen is Founder and Editorial Director of Power & Corridors. Based in Abu Dhabi, he focuses on geopolitical risk, maritime security, trade corridors, energy, logistics and critical infrastructure.
