Saudi Arabia's Oil Corridors Under Pressure: The Hormuz Alternative Is Now Contested

Saudi Arabia built its East–West oil corridor to ensure that crude could continue reaching global markets even if the Strait of Hormuz became inaccessible. The latest NERAI public brief finds that this strategic alternative is now facing pressure of its own.

The threat is developing at both ends of the corridor. Iraq-based attacks place pressure on petroleum infrastructure and the eastern side of the Saudi energy network, while Houthi activity threatens the Red Sea gateway and tanker routes through Bab el-Mandeb.

This does not mean Saudi oil exports are about to stop. The more immediate risk is that every barrel becomes more expensive, less predictable and more difficult to insure and transport.

For now, Red Sea throughput remains resilient despite the deteriorating threat environment. That gap between rising risk and continued physical flows is the report’s most important finding. The situation becomes significantly more serious if disruption around Hormuz is accompanied by an observable decline in Red Sea traffic.

The full NERAI public brief examines the emerging two-front pressure on Saudi Arabia’s oil corridors and the indicators that could signal a shift from strategic threat to physical disruption.