Tim Clark’s call for manufacturers to establish operations in Dubai reflects a broader UAE strategy to localise aircraft production, expand maintenance capacity and strengthen the aviation systems supporting trade, food security and economic growth.
Saudi Arabia’s principal alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a simple fallback. Severe disruption through Hormuz is increasing reliance on the Red Sea corridor just as pressure builds from Iran-aligned militias in Iraq to the north and the Houthis in Yemen to the south. The emerging risk is not necessarily a complete shutdown, but a sustained campaign designed to make Saudi exports more expensive, less predictable and harder to insure.
Main briefing · Energy corridors
Saudi Arabia’s oil corridors under pressure: the Hormuz alternative is now contested
Strait of Hormuz vessel throughput is approximately 72% below baseline, making it the most disrupted chokepoint in NERAI’s global tracking. That collapse is forcing greater operational dependence on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export route.
The pressure geometry is increasingly two-sided. Iran-aligned militias in Iraq create exposure to the north, while the Houthis can threaten Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb access from the south. The combination points to a coordinated regional pressure campaign rather than a single-corridor event.
The most important divergence is between threat and flow. Escalation pressure in the Red Sea is rising, yet throughput remains close to normal. That suggests war-risk insurance, route planning and commercial caution may be moving ahead of physical disruption.
Power & Corridors assessment
The likely objective is leverage rather than closure: make every Saudi barrel costlier and less predictable to move, while forcing operators, insurers and buyers to price in a wider regional risk premium.
What to watch
Red Sea insurance
Whether premiums rise before physical transit volumes fall.
Iraq militia activity
Strikes or threats against Saudi energy and logistics infrastructure.
Houthi targeting
Expansion from harassment to sustained pressure on tanker routes.
Saudi export flexibility
Pipeline, storage and port measures used to preserve reliability.
The United States and Iran have observed a second consecutive day without renewed strikes, creating a tentative pause after the latest round of fighting.
President Donald Trump has said there is a “good chance” of diplomatic progress, while also warning that military action could resume if talks fail.
The confirmation of US combat deaths marks an important escalation threshold. Even if the pause holds, the conflict has moved into a more politically consequential phase for Washington.
Power & Corridors assessment
A pause is not yet de-escalation. The key test is whether both sides convert temporary restraint into a negotiating framework before another operational incident closes the diplomatic window.
Netanyahu and Zelensky arrive as US policy reaches decision points
President Trump has hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington as both conflicts enter what officials describe as critical phases.
Netanyahu’s meeting may be less predictable than previous encounters, given tensions over Gaza strategy and the direction of US diplomacy with Iran.
Zelensky’s Senate engagement is being interpreted as a possible signal of movement in US policy towards Ukraine, particularly as Washington reassesses the war’s trajectory and its own level of commitment.
Power & Corridors assessment
The meetings are not simply diplomatic set pieces. They are part of a wider attempt by Washington to define the political end states it is prepared to support in two simultaneous wars.
The war is reshaping Russia’s wider regional relationships
Reports that Vladimir Putin declined to host Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at the Kremlin point to broader strains in Russia’s regional relationships as the war continues.
Putin has again blamed the West for the war and argued that Russia was forced into military action, reinforcing the information narrative Moscow continues to use domestically and internationally.
European commentary increasingly focuses on the operational lessons Ukraine is generating for states seeking to counter longstanding assumptions about Russian military power and strategic behaviour.
Power & Corridors assessment
The war’s strategic effects extend beyond the battlefield. Russia’s relationships across the former Soviet space are being tested as Moscow’s authority, resources and reliability are reassessed.
The immediate story is Saudi export vulnerability. The wider picture is a set of simultaneous decision points: whether the US-Iran pause becomes diplomacy, whether Washington changes course in Israel and Ukraine, and whether Russia’s regional influence continues to erode.
Together, these developments show why geopolitical risk must be followed through military action, diplomatic posture, transport corridors, insurance pricing, energy flows and the durability of political relationships.
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Dean Mikkelsen is Founder and Editorial Director of Power & Corridors. Based in Abu Dhabi, he focuses on geopolitical risk, maritime security, trade corridors, energy, logistics and critical infrastructure.
