A 30–90 day read on the chokepoints, tariffs and corridors shaping global trade risk — and what they mean for your operations.
This issue: the Strait of Hormuz running ~94% below normal transit, US–China tariffs holding at 30% under a fragile 60-day pause, and paper/pulp imports at the highest near-term disruption risk in the set. Base case is elevated-but-manageable disruption, with a credible ~1-in-4 escalation path that would push container freight up 40–60% into the holiday season.
Produced by the NERAI Strategic Insights Lab for the Power & Corridors × NERAI Foresight Desk.
Dean Mikkelsen is Founder and Editorial Director of Power & Corridors. Based in Abu Dhabi, he focuses on geopolitical risk, maritime security, trade corridors, energy, logistics and critical infrastructure.
